Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog

Rudy Giuliani addressing Team Giuliani after the New Hampshire Primary

Rudy Giuliani is on to Florida in his big states strategy.

The latest Florida poll has Rudy leading both Mike Huckabee and John McCain by 5 Points.

The Mayor will be making a major speech on taxes and financial policy tomorrow afternoon in Melbourne, Florida.

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog

Former New York City Mayor and Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani speaks to supporters at the National Italian/American Sports Hall of Fame in Chicago, Illinois December 7, 2007.

Rudy Giuliani continues to lead in the latest Mason-Dixon Nevada GOP poll:

This is quite a turn for Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee around from the previous Mason-Dixon poll in October where Rudy lead Thompson by 5 points and Huckabee registered only 2 points.

This is a good poll for the Mayor and shows his strength particularly among Nevada women in the first far western state GOP contest.

Will Nevada who caucuses on January 19, ten days before Rudy’s Firewall in Florida, provide the Mayor’s first early state win? Or will it be Michigan on January 15?

Stay tuned…….

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Huckaboom Vs Mitt Plays into Giuliani Strategy

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy 26% Huckabee 18% McCain 13% Romney 12% Thompson 11% Paul 3% in Latest National GOP Poll

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Status of the Campaign PM Edition

Former mayor of New York and Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani meets with a veteran at the Maple Tree restaurant in Oak Park, Illinois November 20, 2007.

Research 2000 Nevada GOP Poll:

• Giuliani: 29 percent (18, 38) (August, March 2007)

• Romney: 22 percent (28, 4)

• Thompson: 15 percent (18, -)

• McCain: 8 percent (8, 18)

• Paul: 7 percent (1, -)

• Huckabee: 6 percent (2, 1)

• Tancredo: 1 percent (1, 1)

• Hunter: 1 percent (1, 1)

• Undecided: 11 percent (18, 20)

Rudy is up from August as are Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are both down but Romney more than Thompson.

This is the second Nevada poll this week showing Rudy with a firm lead. Nevada’s GOP caucus will be January 19th the same day as the South Carolina primary election.

A Western state that caucuses 14 days after Iowa, Rudy is showing strength in a state with a large Mormon population that is contiguous to Utah. This is a state thought to be “OWNED” by Mitt Romney.

It is looking like Nevada might be the first “EARLY” state that delivers a win for Giuliani before the Florida and Super Duper Tuesday Primary elections.

Stay tuned……

Republican presidential hopeful, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, accompanied by Illinois House Republican Leader Tom Cross, left, and former Illinois Gov. Jim Edgar calls on a reporter at a press conference Tuesday, Nov. 20, 2007 in Chicago. Edgar endorsed Giuliani Tuesday.

Previous:

Mitt Romney Watch: Romney HYPOCRITICAL on Illegal Immigration AGAIN

Mitt Romney Says Rudy Has Pushed the Panic Button - WTF?

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Giuliani Florida Poll Watch: Rudy Beating Romney by 21 Points; Update: Video - Rudy in Florida Yesterday

Giuliani Nevada Poll Watch: Rudy Up by 8 Points Over Romney

Giuliani Florida Poll Watch: Rudy with 18 Point Lead Over Thompson and McCain

Giuliani California Campaign Watch: Call Out for Telephone Volunteers

Rudy Giuliani Watch: “TESTED” On Air In New Hampshire

Video: Rudy Giuliani Addresses California Campaign Volunteers

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Visiting California Campaign Headquarters

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Big State Strategy

Giuliani Florida Poll Watch: Rudy Leads Romney by 17 Points While Thompson Collapses

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog

Republican presidential hopeful, former N.Y. Mayor Rudy Giuliani, center,walks with his wife Judith, right, and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, left, prior to the start of the Ford 400 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup series auto race at the Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, Fla. Sunday, Nov. 18, 2007.

The Mason-Dixon Florida GOP Poll:

• Rudy - 36% ( 24% - 9/7/07)

• Romney - 15% (13%)

• Thompson - 12% (23%)

• McCain - 10% (9%)

• Huckabee - 8% (6%)

• Others - 4% (3%)

• Undecided - 15% (22%)

Rudy has opened a commanding lead in Florida - his “FIREWALL” state. Fred Thompson has collapsed in the past two months and is now in third place.

Since Thompson trails the field badly in Iowa and New Hampshire is there any guarantee that he will be competitive in Florida. Or will Florida be make or break for Fred?

Note that Rudy has not aired ANY television commercials in Florida while Mitt Romney has been “on air” for weeks.

Let’s look at the Real Clear Politics chart and graph of the Florida race:

Here is video of Rudy in Homestead, Florida yesterday at NASCAR:

Previous:

Giuliani Nevada Poll Watch: Rudy Up by 8 Points Over Romney

Giuliani Florida Poll Watch: Rudy with 18 Point Lead Over Thompson and McCain

Giuliani California Campaign Watch: Call Out for Telephone Volunteers

Rudy Giuliani Watch: “TESTED” On Air In New Hampshire

Video: Rudy Giuliani Addresses California Campaign Volunteers

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Visiting California Campaign Headquarters

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Big State Strategy

Giuliani Florida Poll Watch: Rudy Leads Romney by 17 Points While Thompson Collapses

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog

Republican presidential hopeful former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani greets supporters at a coffee shop in Loveland, Colo., Saturday, Nov. 10, 2007.

The St. Petersburg Times Poll:

• Rudy - 34%

• Romney - 19%

• McCain - 12%

• Thompson - 8%

The big news out of this Florida poll is the collapse of Fred Thompson. Florida was to be the battleground between Rudy and Thompson.

Now, will it be the battleground between Rudy and Romney?

Mitt Romney has been “on air” with television commercials and is polling even with Rudy in Central Florida. Whereas, Giuliani continues with a large lead in South Florida.

The November 7 Survey USA Florida poll had Thompson polling at 22% with Romney at 17%. Rudy maintained 34% support.

So, the question is whether this poll is an OUTLIER or has indeed the Thompson campaign collapsed in Florida and in turn given Mitt Romney an opening.

Stay tuned…..

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Iowa and Nevada

Rudy Giuliani - NO Illegal Alien Driver’s Licenses

Giuliani Florida Poll Watch: Rudy Leads Thompson By 12 Points

Pat Robertson to Endorse Rudy Giuliani; Update: Pat Robertson Has Endorsed Rudy Giuliani for President

Rudy Giuliani on the NBC Nightly News

Giuliani California Poll Watch: Rudy By 18 Points Over Second Place McCain

Republican Presidential hopeful, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, center, leaves a news conference in Washington, Friday, Nov. 2, 2007,with Sen. Kit Bond, R-Mo., rear, and Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., left, after the announcement of Sen. Bond’s endorsement of Giuliani for President. Sen. Coleman endorsed Giuliani on Thursday.

Senator John McCain has returned to second place with Rudy Giuliani continuing to lead the GOP Field in the latest Washington Post - ABC News National GOP Poll.

The poll is here.

(ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, or Fred Thompson), for whom would you vote?

NET LEANED VOTE

11/1/07   9/30/07   9/7/07   7/21/07   6/1/07   4/15/07   2/25/07
Rudy Giuliani          33        34       28        37       34        35        53
John McCain            19        12       18        16       20        22        23
Fred Thompson          16        17       19        15       13        10        NA
Mitt Romney            11        11       10         8       10        10         5
Mike Huckabee           9         8        5         2        2         1         2
Ron Paul                3         3        1         2        2         1         1
Duncan Hunter           2         2        1         2        1         1         *
Tom Tancredo            1         1        *         2        1         1         1
Other (vol.)            *         *        1         *        *         0         *
None (vol.)             4         4        2         5        3         4         2
Wouldn't vote (vol.)    *         1        2         1        *         *         1
No opinion              3         8       10         5       10         7         5

The poll gives Rudy a double digit lead over John McCain who has limited his campaign to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Fred Thompson’s campaign continues to collapse while Mike Huckabee is now threatening Mitt Romney’s fourth place.

In the general election portion of the poll, Rudy Giuliani does the best of any GOP candidate, trailing Hillary Clinton by only 4 percentage points - well within competitive striking distance.

Let’s look at the Real Clear politics chart and graph:

The trend line is looking bright for Rudy.

For all of the Ron Paul folks, Dr. Ron is at 3%.

Stay tuned……

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Hits Hillary on Drivers Licenses for Illegal Aliens

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Pat Buchanan - Rudy Giuliani and the Faustian Bargain

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Rudy Giuliani Watch: Californians for Rudy

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Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani speaks to a group of supporters at Dino’s Seaville Diner in Dennis Township, N.J., Monday, Oct. 1, 2007.

A new NewsMax/Zogby survey shows the Mitt Romney lead in New Hampshire being cast aside, turning the state’s Republican nomination race into a cliffhanger featuring a clash of styles and substance.

The GOP NUTS:

In the Zogby poll Romney has lost 11 points since May. In the recent ARG poll Mitt has lost 3 points and McCain surged. The CNN poll shows only a 1 point Romney lead (within the margin of error).

New Hampshire is a horse race.

And, Rudy Giuliani has been the beneficiary of the Romney decline.

Just a few weeks ago the Romney folks were bragging that Romney was going to ride the momentum from wins in Iowa and New Hampshire to South Carolina and Florida.

Well, Mitt’s poll lead has collapsed in New Hampshire. So, back to the drawing board for Mitt’s strategy team.

Rudy has made a point of contending in ALL states and conserving campaign resources. Romney has tried for a knock out blow in Iowa and New Hampshire while burning through campaign cash.

Let’s look at the Real Clear Politics graph and chart:

But, why has Romney collapsed and what portends for the future?

But it is possible that something more fundamental is at play here. New Hampshire is the state of “live free or die,” where religious conservatives do not dominate the G.O.P. electorate and libertarianism has a long tradition. So while Mr. Romney was affecting his socially conservative, anti-gay-marriage rebirth with an eye toward Iowa, Republicans in New Hampshire have watched approvingly as Mr. Giuliani (and John McCain, for that matter) pounded the lectern about taxes and security.

What’s more, New Hampshire is a state heavily influenced by the Massachusetts media market, and which is overrun by transplants from Massachusetts. While Iowa has only ever known the religious conservative Mitt Romney, the residents of New Hampshire will be keenly aware of the stark changes Mr. Romney has undergone in order to accommodate his new political goals.

A dilemma for Governor Romney, wouldn’t you say?

Play the moderate to win New Hampshire or lose your NEW “BRAND” as a social conservative and lose South Carolina, Florida and other southern states.

Can’t have it both ways.

In any case, Giuliani is the WINNER here.

Previous:

Mitt Romney Lead in New Hampshire Collapses

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Mr. September Blackballed By Christian Right? The Reaction Part Two

Rudy - Send Judith to Voice Mail

Anti-Giuliani Group Punks Rudy But Gets IT Wrong

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Mr. September Blackballed By Christian Right? The Reaction

Giuliani Poll Watch: Rudy Continues to Contend in South Carolina

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Wins GOP Women Straw Poll

Giuliani Poll Watch: Rudy Contends in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Mr. September Blackballed By Christian Right?

Republican presidential hopeful and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, center, and his wife Judith Giuliani, center left, throw flowers into a reflecting pool at the World Trade Center site, Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2007 in New York City. The ceremony marks the 6th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks in New York and Washington D.C.

Washington Post-ABC News Poll GOP NUTS:

Rudy - 28%

Fred Thompson - 19%

John McCain - 18%

Mitt Romney - 10%

Mike Huckabee - 5%

The race is tightening and in other polls Fred Thompson has received a bump. But, Romney continues to trail every where except New Hampshire, Iowa and Michigan.

Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, trails Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire among Republican voters, and he lags behind Fred Thompson in South Carolina. But Giuliani is only a few points behind the leader in New Hampshire and South Carolina–within the poll’s margin of error–suggesting that the race in those two states is too tight for anyone to be declared a clear front-runner.

Stay tuned…….

Previous:

Giuliani Poll Watch: California Lead Narrows for Rudy

Giuliani Poll Watch: Rudy Continues to Lead in Latest Gallup Poll

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Giuliani Poll Watch: South Carolina - Rudy and Fred in Dead Heat

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Will McCain Back Rudy?

Republican presidential candidate and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani answers a voter’s question during a campaign stop in Derry, New Hampshire, August 16, 2007.

Rasmussen’s General Election Poll has Rudy beating Hillary Clinton 47% to 44%.

In six polls conducted between November 2006 and April of this year, Giuliani was ahead of Clinton each time with margins ranging from two to nine points. The match-up between the frontrunners tightened from May to early July. During that stretch, the two candidates were within a point of each other four times. Clinton led by a single point in a July 10 survey, the only time all year she’s topped Giuliani in a national poll.

However, the last two polls show Giuliani ahead once again.

Real Clear politics has an interactive graph that shows the general election polling over many sources.

The race is close.

Flap knows the race will continue to be close with just a few states in play, including Florida and Pennsylvania.

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Today’s Presidential Polls

Rudy Giuliani Watch: National Review - Rudy Gets an “A” on Health Care

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Florida Firewall

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Leads Thompson By 15 Points in Latest Fox News Poll

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog 

Republican presidential hopeful former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani poses for photos while signing autographs at a speaking engagement in Del Mar, Calif. Wednesday Aug. 22, 2007.

Rudy cintinues to rack up double digit leads on Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney with John McCain fading into fourth place.

The GOP Nuts:

Undoubtedly Fred Thompson will get a bump up when he announces his official candidacy in the next week. However, Romney’s attacks on Rudy have fallen flat and he continues in third place.

The main question: Will John McCain go on the attack against Romney, particularly in New Hampshire?

Flap says yes.

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: “Leave My Family Alone” Rudy Tells Derry New Hampshire Mother Katherine Prudhomme-O’Brien Part 2

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Giuliani Notes: Florida - Rudy 30% Thompson 17% Romney 15% McCain 7% in Latest Rasmussen GOP Poll

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