March 14, 2007

Former NYC Commissioner Howard Safir Defends Rudy on IAFF Flap


Commissioner Safir emphasizes the truth of this matter- which is that after 52 days, Mayor Giuliani made this agonizing decision for the safety of all the of people working at the WTC site.

by @ 4:17 pm. Filed under Liberal Attacks

Introducing the Deroy Murdock Archive

Blogs for Rudy is honored to feature selected articles by Deroy Murdock, a nationally syndicated columnist with the Scripps Howard News Service and Contributing Editor with National Review Online. Mr. Murdock has written much of the seminal commentary regarding Rudolph W. Giuliani’s tenure as Mayor of New York City, as well as his nascent presidential campaign. Please be sure to follow the link to read all of Mr. Murdock’s truly essential 2008-related work contained in our archive.

by @ 4:13 pm. Filed under Deroy Murdock

More on the CBS/NYT Poll

The narrowing of the numbers between Mayor Giuliani and Sen. McCain in the most recent CBS/NYT poll was the cause of much debate here yesterday. It seems that the poll caught the attention of Mark Blumenthal of Pollster as well, who offered the following analysis:

Both the February and March surveys involved a hypothetical two-way match-up between Giuliani and McCain (Q49), and the decline in Giuliani’s support appears to be just barely statistically significant. For those wondering (as I did), surveys interviewed 314 registered Republicans voters who say they are likely to vote in Republican primary in February and 603 in March (the most recent survey involved an oversample of Republicans; unweighted counts are at the end of the CBS releases here and here).

Given the sample sizes, the seven point drop for Giuliani (from 50% to 43%) is just barely statistically significant at a 95% confidence level, although the five point increase for McCain (29% to 34%) is not.

However, there are some very good reasons for caution here. First, when I say “barely” I mean the Giuliani decline would not be significant if we needed to be 96% confident. And the precision of my calculation requires a statistical assumption (simple random sampling) that is iffy when pollsters weight their data (as this and virtually all other public polls do).

Next, remember that four other surveys conducted over the last 10 days - including the just released CNN/ORC survey - show no comparable Giuliani decline. In fact, while the changes on any individual poll may have been within sampling error, all four show a slightly larger Giuliani lead (see also the trend in evidence on our Presidential tracking chart).

Keep in mind, of course, that the CBS/NYT survey involved a hypothetical two-way Giuliani-McCain match-up, while the others asked respondents to choose among all of the likely Republican candidates. Notice that the CBS/NYT results are better for both Giuliani and McCain - the perfectly logical result of offering just two choices rather than roughly ten. Perhaps the Giuliani decline occurred mostly among those who only opted for Giuliani (in February) because their first choice was not an option.

Consider finally the issue of the “oversample” of Republicans on the most recent survey interviewed by redialing households “at which a self-identified Republican had been interviewed in [CBS/NYT] polls over the last seven months.” Of course, the pollsters can compare the oversample to Republicans in the base sample to see if the former was more hostile to Giuliani. In response to my email query, CBS Survey Director Kathleen Frankovic confirms that she saw “no indication that the oversample was hostile to Giuliani.”

When it comes to methodology, the CBS/New York Times surveys are top notch. But yes, early or late, even the best polls can produce “fickle” results. So given all of the above, readers should be cautious about making too much of the observed Giuliani decline until confirmed elsewhere.

The last two polls that measured the Rudy/McCain head-to-head matchup were the March 4th Newsweek poll that showed Rudy with a 25 pt. lead on McCain, and the February 17th CBS poll that showed Rudy with a 21 pt. lead on the Senator. So as Blumenthal advises, we should use caution when make a conclusion based on this data alone.

by @ 4:10 pm. Filed under Poll Watch

Giuliani Notes: Rudy’s Lead Fragile?

giulianimarch12aweb2

Republican Presidential Rudy Giuliani, right, and his wife Judith Nathan, center, listen as former U.S. Solicitor General Theodore Olson speaks during a news conference in Washington, Monday, March 12, 2007.

GOP Insiders See Giuliani’s Lead In Polls As Fragile

Despite former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s lead in the polls, Republican insiders say the GOP base is so divided and Giuliani’s ascension is so fragile that the party’s presidential nomination for 2008 is totally up for grabs.

“I’ve never seen the party so split,” says a GOP strategist with close ties to evangelical Christians.

One anonymous alleged strategist tied to another campaign thinks what?

Please…….

If you want to “PLANT” a story at least cite some facts - like a poll result or a trend line.

The fact is: Rudy is leading by double digits in most national and many state GOP polls. Rudy is the only GOP candidate who consistently beats Hillary Clinton AND Barack Obama in head to head match-ups.

Who are these folks at CBS News trying to fool?

Or are they still trying to authenticate that Bush National Guard memo?

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog

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by @ 7:06 am. Filed under Media

March 13, 2007

Giuliani Notes: Rudy Announces More California Endorsements

giulianimarch13gweb

Earlier today Rudy announced more California endorsements for his presidential campaign.

The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Exploratory Committee today announced the latest members of a growing California team supporting Rudy Giuliani for President. The endorsements follow a successful swing through the state and an overwhelming response by Californians to Mayor Giuliani’s optimistic vision for the future and proven leadership.

In addition to Rep. David Dreier, Rep. Mary Bono and Rep. Devin Nunes, who have already been working to elect Rudy Giuliani President, the Mayor gained the support of Rep. Jerry Lewis, Anaheim Mayor Curt Pringle, Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel, Assemblyman Ted Gaines, former California Republican Party Chairmen Robert Naylor and Frank Visco and actor and political commentator Dennis Miller.

Hizzoner is in Houston this evening fundraising after stumping and fundraising last night in Chicago.

Tomorrow night the Mayor will be in New York City for a fundraising event at the Sheraton New York Hotel and Towers, 811 Seventh Avenue. Dennis Miller will be the Master of Ceremonies.

giulianimarch13jweb2

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog

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by @ 11:04 pm. Filed under Endorsements

Hugh Hewitt on Rudy and Judges

Hugh appeared on Sean Hannity’s radio show today and had this to say regarding Rudy and judges:

HANNITY: All right. Let me ask you. You talked about the appointment of judges when you were discussing myth and the issue of abortion. I’ve interviewed Rudy both on radio and television. His answer, yes, I’m pro choice. I’m for parental notification. Now I’m against partial birth abortion. I disavow what I said 18 years ago, the tape that Alan ran. But I would appoint originalist judges. Does that work for conservatives?

HEWITT: Yes, it does. And I’ll tell you, I had a little experience with this. When I was in the Reagan White House I shared an office with a pretty smart guy by the name of John Roberts. We were lawyers together.

HANNITY: I knew you were hanging with smart people.

HEWITT: Always hanging around smart people, they do all the work. What I got to realize with Romney and I believe with Rudy, who was like the justice with John Roberts and with me and with Bill Smith. And the rest of us is that originalism means something. It means that we don’t want judges inventing stuff. And so it’s perfectly consistent for Rudy to say he is going to appoint Alito and Roberts. And the same thing…

by @ 5:51 pm. Filed under Judges

Leonidas leads the field, but troubles some Spartans

In which I satirize the film “300″ in order to make a very important point.

With the latest poll from Gallup/Sparta Today showing Leonidas with a commanding lead over his rivals for his party’s nomination, some Spartans are beginning to feel that a sense of inevitability is building around Leonidas’ candidacy. Not so fast, say certain members of Leonidas’ own party, many of whom are concerned about Leonidas’ views on issues other than the war with Persia.

“He’s right on Persia, but so are all the other candidates,” said Spartan religious seer Dobsonopolis. “We Spartans aren’t just fighting a war against Xerxes, but a culture war at home that is equally important! Will Leonidas end the anti-life practice of leaving the Spartan young in the wilderness to die?!”

Dobsonopolis is referring to the age-old Spartan tradition of rejecting Spartan young who fail to meet certain physical qualifications, a practice increasingly opposed by Leonidas’ party. Leonidas has promised to let the people of Sparta decide whether to maintain this policy, though Leonidas admittedly personally supports the practice. His deference to the people isn’t good enough for some on this issue. Likewise, many Spartans are concerned about Leonidas’ position on sword control.

“Leonidas has a long history of being a sword grabber! He claims that only Spartans properly trained to fight should wield them!” argued the head of the Spartan Sword Association. Leonidas has promised not to implement the sword control policies he has supported in the past on a community-wide basis if elected, but again, this just isn’t good enough for some.

And then there’s Leonidas’ seeming disinterest in Mount Olympus.

“We have seen YouTube clips of Leonidas mocking the priests of the oracle!” exclaimed Perkinsopolis, head of Spartans for Families. “Leonidas is just too secular to lead Sparta! The man talks about logic and reason. But what about Zeus?! This party cannot exist without people of faith in the gods! Leonidas’ supporters are trying to push us out!!!”

But Leonidas’ only problems aren’t with Spartans on the Right. The Spartan Left is equally disdainful of Leonidas’ seemingly brash and hawkish policies.

“The man will stretch executive authority to its limits,” said one scruffy protestor. “He totally disregarded the Council’s authority to choose whether or not to declare war and, as a consequence, he got us into an illegal war with Xerxes! And all this time he said he was going out for ‘a walk’ when he took the troops out to the battlefield. Leonidas lied, Spartans died!!!”

“Not only is the man a war criminal, he’s a bigot!” said leftist leader Sharptoncles. “Leonidas discriminates between Spartans and hunchbacks. Are we going to turn the clock back in Sparta to a time when hunchbacks had to get to the back of the line?” Sharptoncles is referring to Leonidas’ decision to exclude a resident hunchback from the Spartan fighting force due to the applicant’s inability to meet the physical requirements. The SCLU has filed a lawsuit on behalf of the hunchback alleging due process and equal protection violations. “What about the right to a hearing, Leonidas?” Sharptoncles demanded.

When asked about these various charges by reporters, Leonidas, after unsheathing his sword and edging the reporters unnervingly close to the Bottomless Pit in the center of town, responded with only the words, “What! About! Sparta!”

Leonidas’ campaign staff later released the following statement: “Leonidas is respectful of the opinions of all Spartans. But as Leonidas himself has previously stated, Sparta’s 80 percent friend is not Sparta’s 20 percent enemy. Leonidas is the only candidate in the field who has demonstrated the ability to decisively win this war against Xerxes, the central issue of our time.”

Scoffing at this statement was conservative commentator D’Souzacles, who has been increasingly abandoned on the Spartan Right for his kind words about the Persians. “I mean, I can see why they call us barbarians,” said D’Souzacles. “We leave our young to die. We’ve lost all faith in the gods. When was the last time you heard anyone pray to Hermes? Forget Xerxes. What about Hermes? We’re focusing on the enemy abroad when we should be looking for the enemy at home!”

Given the opposition to Leonidas amongst Spartans, Xerxes is optimistic about Persian chances. “Spartans are divided and unfocused. That is good. They are right to reject Leonidas,” Xerxes said, surrounded by that dude with the crab arms and the guy with the goat head. “Leonidas asks Spartans to put aside petty differences, to prioritize, to reason, and to think. I ask them only…to kneel.”

by @ 1:56 pm. Filed under 2008 Misc.

Poll Alert: KRNV-TV Nevada Poll

Nevada has some good news for Republicans…

News 4/Reno Gazette-Journal, GOP and Dem Primary with General Election Poll Republicans

  • Rudy Guiliani 38%
  • John McCain 18%
  • Newt Gingrich 13%
  • Mitt Romney 4%
  • Sam Brownback 1%
  • Mike Huckabee 1%
  • Tom Tancredo 1%
  • Duncan Hunter 1%
  • Condoleezza Rice 1%
  • Chuck Hagel 1%
  • Others 1%
  • Undecided 20%

Democrats

  • Hillary Clinton 32%
  • Barack Obama 20%
  • Al Gore 11%
  • John Edwards 11%
  • Bill Richardson 2%
  • Wesley Clark 2%
  • Mike Gravel 1%
  • Dennis Kucinich 1%
  • Chris Dodd 1%
  • Joe Biden 1%
  • Undecided 18%

General Election

  • John McCain 44%
  • Hillary Clinton 39%
  • Undecided 17%
  • Interesting to note… HRC only beats McCain by 4 pts. among women (which is within the MoE) while McCain beats her by 14 pts. among men.
  • John McCain 43%
  • Barack Obama 42%
  • Undecided 15%
  • John McCain 44%
  • John Edwards 40%
  • Undecided 16%
  • John McCain 44%
  • Al Gore 40%
  • Undecided 16%
  • Rudy Giuliani 46%
  • Hillary Clinton 38%
  • Undecided 16%
  • Interesting to note… Rudy runs 1 pt. behind HRC among women while beating her by 1 pts. among men.
  • Rudy Giuliani 44%
  • Barack Obama 42%
  • Undecided 14%
  • Rudy Giuliani 46%
  • John Edwards 40%
  • Undecided 14%
  • Rudy Giuliani 45%
  • Al Gore 42%
  • Undecided 13%

Thanks to Mark at Decision ‘08 for the tip.

by @ 1:51 pm. Filed under Poll Watch

Poll Alert: Rassmussen 2008 GOP Nomination

Rasmussen’s latest shows Hizzoner with an all-time high 21 pt. lead on Sen. McCain:

Rasmussen Reports 2008 GOP Primary Poll, conducted March 5-8, 2007.

  • Rudy Giuliani 37%
  • John McCain 16%
  • Newt Gingrich 11%
  • Mitt Romney 10%

No other Republican cracked 2%.

by @ 9:49 am. Filed under Poll Watch

March 12, 2007

Giuliani Notes: Smart Money to Give Rudy a Cool Million

giulianimarch12vweb2

Click for larger view

The “K” Street folks can read the polls too.

Flap doesn’t think raising campaign cash will be one of Rudy’s problems.

Cross Posted from the Fullosseousflap’s Dental Blog

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by @ 10:52 pm. Filed under Fundraising

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