Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog

While discussing the nascent Fred Thompson campaign on the R4′08 bat-phone the other night, Dave and I tried to pin down just what portion of the GOP electorate a Fred Thompson run would resonate with the most. Or perhaps rather: who would Fred Thompson pull the most support from? This necessitated breaking down the base of support of each candidate in the current GOP field. However, this led me to another question: Who makes up Mitt Romney’s current base of support; and from what group (or candidate) does he hope to pull the most support from in order to emerge as the 2008 Republican nominee? Let me begin by stating how I believe the current field shakes out.

Rudy Giuliani: Rudy’s main base is the easiest to identify since he currently leads his nearest competitor by 18%-25% depending upon what poll you believe. Since the margin is so great, it’s reasonable to assume that he draws wide support from many or most of the individual subsets that make up the current incarnation of the Republican Party. However, if I had to give a name to who I believe will form the base of the coalition that will eventually lead to Rudy winning the GOP nomination, I would call them “Bush Republicans”.

Bush Republicans are the rank-in-file of the Republican party that identify themselves are “conservative” or “very conservative”. Social issues may or may not be of critical importance, and they still approve of President Bush. For these voters, Islamofascism is now the the defining issue of our times and they look to the man that personally threw Yassir Arafat the heck out of his city as the kind of leader who should assume leadership of The West’s efforts to combat its spread. Thankfully for Rudy, it is exactly this issue that lead to President Bush receiving the most votes in the history of U.S. Presidential elections.

John McCain: Sen. McCain’s support seems to be an amalgamation of the liberal Main Street Republicans along with the older, traditionalist Republicans who voted for Nixon, voted for Ford, voted for Ronald Reagan, as well as both Bushes and Bob Dole. These mature “VFW Republicans” are the traditionalists of the party who more than likely view Sen. McCain as the heir apparent and will support him because they respect his service (as we all should and do) and believe that it’s “his turn”.>

Newt Gingrich: I believe Newt’s support would fall into the same subset as Rudy’s, with the difference being that these Republicans cannot bring themselves to support Rudy at this time due to his social views. I’ll call this group the “Checklist Republicans”. Is a candidate Pro-Life? Check. Strong on the war? Check. Against tax increases and government spending? Check.

Although socially conservative, conservatism as a unifed whole is what matters to these GOP’ers.

Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee: These candidates will do battle for the hearts of Evangelical voters for whom Social Conservatism is the Alpha and the Omega of why they belong to the Republican Party.

Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter: The Congressmen in this race are competing to represent the Buchananite-Paleoconservative wing of the GOP.

So where does Mitt fall into all of this? Crosstabs tell us that he is not the candidate of the Religious Right, nor is he the first choice of the 9-11 Republican. There are certainly not many Buchananites in his fold. Nor are there likely to be many of the GOP Mainstreeters left after his “Conservatization” on the social issues. He is not an “heir apparent”.

My guess is that Mitt’s core is made up of segments of the “Social Conservative” and “Checklist Republican” subsets that are looking for someone who they view as more electorally viable and charismatic than the current candidates available to them there.

The bad news for Mitt is that as long as Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich remain in the race, there doesn’t appear to be enough unaffiliated Republicans left to make up any ground. And if Fred Thompson enters the race, both he and Newt Gingrich may be dead men walking as Thompson is exactly the kind of candidate that could pull voters away from every candidate and each group.

In the Pennsylvania Republican primary, a new Strategic Vision poll reports that Rudy Giuliani leads the Republican field by a wide margin. Indeed, Giuliani leads John McCain, his nearest competitor, by 25 points.  With some in the Pennsylvania legislature trying to move the primary up to February 5th, this poll bodes extremely well for Giuliani.  Indeed, if he can count on the delegates from New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, it permits him to focus his attention on crucial California, Florida, and Texas. 

Willard Mitt Romney donated $250 in 1992 to then-U.S. Rep. Dick Swett’s (D – New Hampshire) successful re-election campaign. The one-term congressman served another term before losing to Republican Charles Bass in 1994. Two years later, Swett ran unsuccessfully against Republican Bob Smith for one of the Granite State’s U.S. Senate seats.

In 1992, the former Massachusetts governor and current Republican presidential contender also donated $250 to Rep. John J. La Falce (D – New York) and $1,000 to Douglas Delano Anderson, an unsuccessful Democratic primary candidate for the U.S. Senate seat held by Utah Republican Jake Garn, who retired that year.

The two Democratic House members who Romney funded were solidly liberal. For 1992, Rep. Swett had a 32 rating (out of 100) from the American Conservative Union and an 85 from the liberal Americans for Democratic Action. That year, LaFalce scored a 12 ACU rating and a Swett-like 85 from the ADA. (more…)

Blogs for Rudy is proud to present the following interview with the new Sr. Communications Advisor for the Rudy Giuliani campaign, Mike McKeon. Mr. McKeon served as New York governor George Pataki’s Director of Communications, and as the Governor’s chief spokesman. He was responsible for overseeing the State’s crisis communications, during and after the September 11th, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center. Prior to joining the Pataki administration in May 1995, McKeon worked for more than 10 years as a reporter for three New York newspapers, winning several awards for local and political reporting.
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KWN: What drew you to Mayor Giuliani’s campaign?

MM: I’ve known Rudy and his team for a long time. We worked very closely together during 9/11 when I worked for Gov. Pataki, so I’ve seen Rudy in action up close at a time that was of critical importance to our country. So I came to have a great deal of respect for the job he did at the time.

KWN: For those that may be unfamiliar with New York, could you explain the differences between what it takes to accomplish a conservative agenda there versus other parts of the U.S.?

MM: In NYC they have a city council that I think at present has three Republicans and 59 Democrats. In NYC, a moderate Democrat is kind of an oxymoron, at least among the elected officials. There are only a handful of people that I think would even want you to describe them as moderate. At one point there was a candidate running for office in Manhattan here who when he knew that I was going to be on TV talking about his race urged me to describe him as “ultra-liberal” because that was better for him and his campaign. It just happened to be true, so I was happy to do it because he is ultra-liberal. That’s the kind of situation that you have here in the city. So it’s very difficult in that kind of setting to get the kind of things done that Rudy did. It made his accomplishments all that much more significant I think. When you consider the fact that he cut taxes 23 times here in NYC, when you have a city council that has to approve the budget that is overwhelmingly Democrat, which is overwhelmingly self-described as very liberal; then you really get a great appreciation for the kind of job that he did. When you consider the fact that he reduced welfare to record lows… Those are tremendous accomplishments in a city that is 5-1 among Democrat to Republican registered voters. So I think that his accomplishments in that regard are really truly heroic, and required him to demonstrate the kind of leadership that this city hadn’t seen and needed badly.

KWN: Would a good example of the misunderstanding of the way NY politics work be the debate surrounding Rudy’s judicial appointments?

MM: Well, you know there are only so many people to choose from in Manhattan and I think Rudy, when it comes to finding kindred spirits, did as good a job as possible. And when you look at the record on crime, and you look at the historic reductions in crime, it wasn’t because he was shy and retiring and just allowed it to happen, it was because of his active leadership.

KWN: As a top strategist and Chief Spokesman for campaigns that resulted in the two largest margins of victory for a Republican in New York State history, you must have unique insight into what it takes for a Republican to win in Blue States. What should a Republican do to have success in Blue State America?

MM: I think Rudy speaks to that. His whole campaign, his whole person speaks to that. He’s a guy who unites people and draws people from all spectrums to his side. He provides the kind of leadership qualities that we need right now, especially in these troubled times. So I think in the first instance Rudy does very well with voters around the country because they saw him in action themselves. He was on their TV screens everyday for many, many days in a row during a very difficult time for this country. So they came to see him, they came to know him, they came to respect him. But if people understand that that kind of leadership extended itself to reducing crime by historic amounts, by cutting taxes twenty-three times, by reducing the size of government, reducing welfare rolls to historic lows; they’re coming to see that this is a guy who we can unite behind to lead this country. He provides the kind of leadership we need across the board and is a unifier. So I think that’s reflected in the polls in both the Republican primary and the general election. He’s got the numbers that bare out his tremendous record.

KWN: The latest Rasmussen survey showed Rudy pulling 20% of Democratic voters away from a Democratic candidate. Conversely, we know from the crosstabs of GOP polls that Rudy’s base of support is from the most conservative and strident Republican voters, the voters that have stood by President Bush through thick and thin. Is it a miscalculation for someone to believe those two things must be mutually exclusive? Is it realistic to expect that trend to continue to a significant degree as the campaign progresses?

MM: Yes, I would think that that would absolutely continue and even grow. Because I think that a lot of Republicans desire strong leadership in a very difficult time and view Rudy as the guy that can provide that kind of leadership. Democrats on the other hand, Rudy is a guy that can bring the Reagan Democrats back into the fold and he cannot just carry the Red States but some Blue States as well. He has very broad appeal and it all stems from the kind of leadership that he brings to the table. And as people learn more about his record; you know people care about their pocketbooks, the war and the troubled times and the leadership that we need. But they also care about their pocketbooks and Rudy is a guy who has cut taxes, he reduced the size of government, he reduced the welfare rolls, he’s someone that people, across the board, can embrace.

KWN: You were responsible for overseeing the State’s crisis communications during and after the September 11th, 2001 attacks, what would be one thing that you would like to convey to people that were not in NY about that day?

MM: I think there was a heroic response by a lot of people, and it took strong leadership from Rudy Giuliani, from Gov. Pataki and others to really pull together. The kind of leadership that Rudy demonstrated was tremendous: it was hands-on, on-the-ground. But there was also such a great degree of compassion for the people that were lost and for the things that happened that day. It was the kind of leadership you really hope for in an elected official. It’s lucky and fortunate to find. It’s so rare. I think people will remember that, and they value it.

KWN: What is your opinion of the IAFF controversy?

MM: I think there is always going to be some individuals that harbor their own agendas. The truth is that he remains immensely popular among the rank-in-file firefighters. The bottom line is: you saw him, I saw him, everyone all over the country saw him on their own TV sets. They have their own informed opinions because they watched him, they listened to him, they saw for themselves. So if a couple of people or union officials have gripes I think people are going to recognize that for what it is and it’s really not going to have much baring on people’s opinions and impressions because they formed them themselves. I don’t need the media to tell me how Rudy did on 9/11. I don’t need the union officials to tell me how he did on 9/11. I saw him myself. I have my own opinions, and they’re deeply held.

KWN: Mayor Giuliani has stressed the importance of nominating constructionist judges. What is it in Rudy’s personal political philosophy that makes that characteristic so critical?

MM: Well, I think that’s who he is. Working in the Reagan White House, working in the Reagan Justice Department he developed an appreciation early on for judges who don’t legislate from the bench. That’s the kind of position he took here in NY when he was Mayor. He was very strongly against the kind of junk justice where judges were legislating from the bench and finding new ways to set criminals free; and he was pretty outspoken on that front. It’s very consistent with his record as Mayor and his training from early on.

KWN: What would you say to those who believe that Mayor Giuliani’s own personal social views would prevent him from nominating constructionist judges?

MM: Again, I think you need to take a look at who he is and take a look at his overall record. This is the guy who says what he means and means what he says. He is very straightforward about his positions and his views and he is not looking to get over on anybody and is going to tell you what he feels and he’s going do what he says . His whole record is of a guy who keeps his word. I think people know Rudy, they trust Rudy, so when they hear him make that kind of pledge they can take it to the bank.

KWN: The National Review Online’s Contributing Editor, Deroy Murdock, recently wrote an op-ed where he described the lack of understanding of Mayor Giuliani’s complete record of conservative governance in those outside of NYC and conservative intellectual circles. Conservative commentator George Will has described Rudy’s record as the most successful episode of conservative governance in the past 50 years. What are people missing in understanding Rudy Giuliani’s complete conservative record?

MM: I think the people who have watched him closely like George Will and Deroy have seen it all and get it completely. The polls reflect that most Republicans get it as well. There’s always going to be a few pundits and others that want to encourage the scrum because, you know, the scrum is more fun for those who observe. I think that at the end of the day, Rudy Giuliani is a guy who’s going to trust the American people and trust that when they take a full look at his record, will get it. That in an overwhelmingly Democratic city, with overwhelmingly Democratic city council, with a lot of people who are self-described very liberal legislators, he was able to cut taxes twenty-three times, he was able to reduce the size of the welfare rolls by a historic amount, he was able to reduce the size of government. They’re going to appreciate that this is a guy who can get things done in a very difficult place. He was able to work across party lines to get things done in government. At the end of the day, you’re going to have to work with everyone to be able to get things done when it comes to reducing taxes, reducing welfare, and reducing the size of government, he demonstrated that he can get it done even in the most liberal city, at least on the East Coast for sure, and maybe in the country.

Giuliani’s pre-9/11 performance should ease conservatives’ doubts. 

The same Beltway experts who declared Sen. John McCain of Arizona the GOP front-runner, even as he under-polled fellow presidential contender Rudolph Giuliani, now parrot equally dodgy concepts. When Republicans meet “the real Rudy,” they will abandon New York’s former mayor like cattle fleeing a burning barn. Then, the wobbly Washington wisdom continues, Giuliani’s three marriages, and his less-than-solidly-right-wing views on gays, guns and gametes will torpedo his buoyant presidential hopes.

These seers now detect unhappiness with the GOP aspirants. They cite a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll in which 26 percent of Republican primary voters were dissatisfied with Giuliani, McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, among others. However, 56 percent called these choices satisfactory. This mirrors the 57 percent of conservative Republicans who preferred Giuliani, versus 31 percent for McCain. More broadly, Republicans backed Giuliani by 38 percent to McCain’s 24, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s 10, Romney’s 8, and 2 percent each for Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

But what if voters like Giuliani better upon understanding his pre-9/11 performance? Educating Republicans on his complete mayoral record _ and soon _ may be Giuliani’s best bet for extinguishing the lingering grumbling about his candidacy.

I recently visited Baltimore, Charlotte, N.C., Richmond, Va., Salem, Ore., Seattle, and Johnstown, Pa., mainly to deliver speeches sponsored by the Young America’s Foundation. I conversed with conservative activists, College Republican leaders, university professors and think-tank scholars, among others. These Americans vividly remember Giuliani emerging from the ashes of Sept. 11 like a latter-day Churchill rising from the rubble of the London Blitz. However, these involved and informed citizens knew startlingly little about Giuliani’s other mayoral achievements:

• Through robust policing, Giuliani drove overall crime down 56.1 percent, while chopping homicides 66.6 percent, from 1,946 in 1993 to 649 in 2001.

• Following national trends, abortions on Giuliani’s watch dropped 16.9 percent, while taxpayer-funded Medicaid abortions plunged 23 percent.

• Gotham’s foster-care population fell 38 percent as Giuliani helped loving families adopt 17,804 boys and girls.

• By fighting fraud and finding work for legitimate beneficiaries, Giuliani cut welfare rolls 58 percent, starting two years before federal welfare reform. Giuliani renamed welfare offices “Job Centers.”

• Giuliani privatized 23,625 previously confiscated, city-owned dwellings, 78 percent of supply, benefiting family and individual homeowners and tenants.

• Giuliani dumped Gotham’s 20 percent set-aside and 10 percent overbid bonus for minority and female contractors. “The whole idea of quotas to me perpetuates discrimination,” he explained. He initiated this on his 24th day in office, far exceeding any colorblindness legislation Congress even debated during the 12-year “Republican Revolution.”

• Giuliani’s $10 million Charter School Improvement Fund helped 3,286 pupils in 17 new charter schools, up from $0 and zero campuses in 1997. He ended tenure for school principals, so slackers could be sacked. He also stopped social promotion; students needed to complete grade-level work to matriculate.

• Ex-pornography mecca Times Square now welcomes families, tourists and locals for fully clothed musicals like “The Lion King” and “Mary Poppins.”

Beyond these socially conservative victories, Giuliani governed as a Reaganesque supply-sider:

• Giuliani scrapped three taxes and slashed 20 others, lowering Gotham’s tax burden by 17 percent and saving individual and business taxpayers $9.8 billion.

• While inflation averaged 3.9 percent, Giuliani’s average spending grew 2.9 percent annually. If the departed GOP Congress were that fiscally disciplined, the next federal budget would be $2.275 trillion _ $625 billion cheaper than proposed.

• While hiring 12 percent more cops and 12.8 percent more teachers, Giuliani sliced other positions 17.2 percent. Overall, the municipal head count fell 3.1 percent.

Rudy got this done thanks largely to a management style that he described Wednesday at a $2 million Manhattan fund-raiser: “I’m impatient and single-minded about my goals.”

Giuliani’s legacy has earned the endorsements of such screaming liberals as President Bush’s former solicitor general, Ted Olson, Sen. David Vitter, R-La., and Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas _ both proud owners of 100 percent ratings from the National Right to Life Committee.

Before Giuliani’s enemies caricature him as a divorce-driven, abortion-peddling, gun-grabbing transvestite, he should familiarize Republicans with his mayoral accomplishments. From Westwood to Washington’s echo chamber, Rudy Giuliani and his supporters should specify how he rescued America’s largest left-wing city through Reaganite social and economic reforms.

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This editorial originally appeared in the National Review Online on March 20th, 2007. It is reprinted here with the author’s permission.

Nearly one-third of all Americans say they would “definitely” vote for Rudy:

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) now leads former North Carolina Senator John Edwards 48% to 41% in an Election 2008 Presidential match-up. While the GOP hopeful has been ahead of Edwards in every Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, the gap between them had closed to only couple of points in recent months. Giuliani leads by ten points among men and two points among women. The former Mayor leads by eight among unaffiliated voters. Other Rasmussen Reports data shows that 31% of voters say they would definitely vote for Giuliani if he is on the 2008 ballot. Twenty-eight percent (28%) would definitely vote against him. Edwards fares far worse on that scale—20% would definitely vote for him while 39% say they would definitely vote against. Giuliani is the current frontrunner for the Republican Presidential nomination. Edwards has been consistently in third place among those seeking the Democratic nomination. Edwards trails Senators Hillary Clinton (D) and Barack Obama (D) among Democrats, but performs as well or better than those candidates when matched against Republicans in a general election poll. Edwards is viewed favorably by 47% of voters and unfavorably by 45%. The 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee has seen his unfavorable ratings climb from 37% at the beginning of 2007. Since November, Guiliani’s stratospheric favorable rating has ranged from 63% to 71%. It is now 66%, down from 70% last month. Still, those figures are far higher than those of any other major Election 2008 candidate (see a summary of ratings for all Republican and Democratic candidates).

Rudy has increased his general election showing against Hillary and Edwards to eight and seven points respectively.

Detroit Free Press: Mich. police group endorses Giuliani

The 14,000-member Police Officers Association of Michigan gave its support this afternoon to the presidential campaign of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

“On 9-11, only hours after the planes had hit the buildings, America had found a leader — Rudy Giuliani,” said James Tignanelli, president of POAM. “We’ve heard one candidate talking about walking off a cliff, another quoting old Southern poetry. But that’s not what we’re looking for. We need a president like Rudy Giuliani.”

The endorsement is the second major one Giuliani has received in recent weeks in Michigan. U.S. Rep. Candice Miller, a Harrison Township Republican, endorsed him and is the chairwoman of his campaign in Michigan.

She was scheduled to introduce him tonight at the Macomb County Lincoln Day dinner, expected to draw more than 1,000 Republicans.

The Quote:

“This endorsement means a great deal to me,” said Giuliani. “These people are my heroes.”

Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani stands with members of the Police Officers Association of Michigan in Sterling Heights, Mich., Friday, March 16, 2007. James Tignanelli, president of the 14,000-member Police Officers Association of Michigan, said the group is backing the former New York mayor because of the leadership he showed after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) leading New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) 49% to 41% in an early Election 2008 match-up. Those figures are close to the lead voters gave the Mayor in our late February poll. Support for both candidates has dipped slightly since then, and Giuliani no longer crests above 50%. But the new numbers are consistent with the arc we’ve seen since November showing the mayor gradually increasing his advantage.

And in last week’s Rasmussen poll, the Mayor continues to lead in the GOP race for the Republican presidential nomination - leading his nearest competitor Senator John McCain by 21 percentage points.

Hizzoner continues to surge and some negative campaigning has commenced.

Is this campaign shaping up for a Rudy landslide?

Stay tuned…….

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog

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